To win the championship, Dovizioso has a slim chance. It would require Marquez to finish over twice as low as he has managed this season, or crash out. It would require Dovi to win. But that is what racers live for, that slim chance. Remember the time a certain Valentino Rossi had to finish near the top, but start from the back of the grid? We saw more overtakes from that man in a single race than this generation has seen. Dovi has a similar task ahead of him, mostly due to his low ninth-place qualifying position.
Marquez set the pace and converted it to a pole position, but behind him is where the surprises are - in second place is Johann Zarco. The last race of the season, a little cautious Marquez... who knows, maybe Zarco can win his first MotoGP race in his rookie season. If he does, he'll make a little bit of history, as the first satellite Yamaha MotoGP rider to ever win a race. In third is an even bigger surprise, Suzuki's Andrea Ianonne. Valencia usually favours motorcycles that handle well, and the Suzuki has always been that. It also brings to mind Ianonne's mad dashes into gaps that don't exist, when he's chasing glory. On the start of the second row is Lorenzo, who is always quick at Valencia. He's chasing his first win on a Ducati as well. At the end of the second row is Michele Pirro, Ducati test rider, in another wildcard appearance. Sandwiched between the Italian bikes is Dani Pedrosa - he will look for some redemption after some truly abysmal performances during the season. Two more riders are between Dovizioso and Marquez - Valentino Rossi and Aleix Espargaro, on the resurgent Aprilia.
The task Dovi has set himself is almost impossible - the track does not favour the Ducati, and if the Italian needs to work himself up the field he has to get past some historically great riders, meaning more fuel and tyres used up.
Still, anything can happen. This has been the truth of MotoGP this season.